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AKADEMIYA2063 and the Global Center on Adaptation CASP Results Validation Workshop: Senegal and Nigeria

By Layih Butake


Africa's food systems are at the forefront of the global climate crisis. Over half of Africa’s economically active population works in and lives from agriculture, contributing to an average of 20 percent of GDP. However, climate change has caused a reduction in agricultural productivity growth by 34 percent since 1961, with droughts leading to economic losses of more than 70 billion US dollars in the past 50 years. Resilience and adaptation to climate change are, therefore, top policy priorities for the African Union (AU).  

Under the broader premise of the Paris Agreement, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) articulate how parties will contribute to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adapting to impacts. One of the crucial components of the Paris Agreement, alongside National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), established under the Cancun Adaptation Framework (CAF), current NDC implementation status signals strong commitment to short-term climate crisis interventions. As of April 2023, 93 percent of countries supported by UNDP's Climate Promise raised mitigation ambition or intend to do so, while 93 percent also incorporated stronger adaptation goals. This progress demonstrates African countries' political will and commitment to laying the groundwork for long-term approaches to tackling the climate crisis. 

The Africa Adaptation Acceleration Program (AAAP), led by the Global Center on Adaptation (GCA) and the African Development Bank (AfDB), aims to mobilize $25 billion to scale up and accelerate climate change adaptation actions across Africa. AKADEMIYA2063 is supporting the GCA and AfDB with mainstreaming climate risk and adaptation initiatives in decision models and budget allocation by providing technical assistance to inform and facilitate the effective implementation of National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) in selected African countries. AKADEMIYA2063's expertise is delivered in the context of the Climate Adaptation Support Program (CASP).

Following the successful completion of Phase I of CASP, which focused on identifying adaptation pathways and related policy options for Kenya and Mali, AKADEMIYA2063 and GCA kicked off Phase II of the program in November 2022. Central to the program agenda is the evaluation of the adaptation plans of four (4) African countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Senegal and the provision of technical support in developing adaptation pathways in the latter two countries. In the case of Nigeria and Senegal, projected changes in agricultural yields were used to understand the economic impacts of climate change in terms of GDP, the employment rate, and poverty levels in the two countries. The same macro-economic model, coupled with a micro-simulation model was used to assess the economic impact of climate smart agriculture strategies such soil and water conservation measures and the use of improved seed.

In line with the foregoing context, in March 2023, AKADEMIYA2063 and GCA held two clinics in Senegal and Nigeria to validate the results of CASP Phase II. The meetings provided a platform to conduct consultation and validation of the synthesis reports which emerged from the review of NAP implementation progress, assessment of environmental changes over the last 20 years, and of the ex-ante economic impact of climate change and returns to  alternative adaptation pathways.

During the March 16 Senegal meeting, stakeholders from AKADEMIYA2063, GCA, the Directorate of Environment and Classified Establishments (DEEC), Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles (ISRA), Centre National de Recherches Forestières (CNRF), Centre de Suivi Écologique (CSE), and the Université Cheikh Anta Diop (UCAD) among others, discussed the findings of the Senegal technical report. Titled “Spatial Distribution of Climate Risk and Vulnerability in Senegal” the report details the Senegal country profile to facilitate the monitoring and comprehension of climate variables for better adaptation interventions. The analysis focuses on climate variables such as water surface, rainfall, land use and land cover, drought index, and soil properties at the pixel level.

With interventions from AKADEMIYA2063, GCA, the National Council on Climate Change, and Environment for Development (EfD), the Nigeria meeting delved into the country’s technical profile based on two reports. “Spatial Distribution of Climate Risk and Vulnerability in Nigeria” and “Climate Adaptation Status and Pathways in Nigeria” provide analyses of key climate variables such as water bodies, rainfall, and population density, all critical to understanding the impact of climate change. In the adaptation status report, the macro-economic results of changes in agricultural yields due to climate change were assessed and the returns to selected climate smart agriculture practices underscored.

Monitoring climate variables and assessing the economic impact of climate change and returns to adaptation solutions will remain crucial to the development of knowledge to support the conception and implementation of adaptation plans.


Layih Butake is the Director of Communication & Outreach at AKADEMIYA2063.